Home prices will rise about 12% in the five years ending December 31, 1014, according to the consensus of 92 economists and other housing prognosticators recently surveyed by MacroMarkets LLC. The survey used the S&P/Case-Shiller national index as the measure. At the end of 2009 the index was down nearly 28% from its peak.

Robert Shiller, the Yale University professor who won the ire of many Realtors when he went against convention, warning of a bust during the housing boom. Mr Shiller co-founded the consulting firm MacroMarkets LLC.

The predictions among the 92 participants swung the full spectrum of economic opinion. Joseph LaVorgan of Deutsche Bank projects home prices rising 37% by the end of 2014 while others including Anthony Sanders of George Mason University and Gary Shilling of A. Gary Shilling & Co., see declines of nearly 18%, that is a 55 point spread.

Mr. Shiller, who did not participate in the survey, forecasts home prices to rise by 12% over the next 5 years.

• Forces that will influence the direction of housing prices include these economic considerations:

• The post-tax credit environment;

• Working through the nearly 4.5 million distressed residences, and;

• The Fed’s budget deficit going forward.

The latter has international implications as the European Union rustles with the credit woes of Greece, Portugal, Ireland and others.

Who would have figured that Greece could affect the value of US homes? But, in this global economic environment you know that the US is being called upon to help bail out governments that have not disciplined their own economies. The more the US Treasury is called on, the more taxing it will be on the US economy and its taxpayers. The greater the economic drag, the greater its impact on housing.