The year was 1900.  The first sign of any incoming storm came on August 28.  For the next few days, the storm would move across the Atlantic, growing in intensity moment by moment while going virtually undetected.  On September 8, the Category 4 hurricane passed directly over Galveston, Texas, destroying the city and killing 8,000 people—the worst natural disaster in U.S. history.  Even though storm warning had been posted four days prior warning the citizens of Galveston to immediately get out, they ignored the warnings and paid the ultimate price.

In the late eighties real estate was going gangbusters. Investors thought real estate was the sure thing investment. There was a sense of “easy money” at every turn. Then in Denver, the bottom fell out of oil companies and real estate suddenly couldn’t be given away.  There was a slow recovery, as there always is, and once again everyone thought is couldn’t happen again.

Seven years ago, the Real Estate and Mortgage Industry was like shooting ducks in a barrel.  Anyone could get a loan with little qualification and a complete disregard to the ability to pay. Lenders became greedy.  Real estate agents became greedy. Bankers became greedy. Financial professionals became greedy. Real estate investors became greedy.  Everybody found a reason to cash in on the new home purchase deals. It seemed too good to be true.

It was. Again.

Common assumptions often lead to business disasters.  The whole reason to have a business plan is to thwart potential misfortune. The first assumption is that surprises are just a part of business reality. The reality is business professionals have the potential to consistently detect opportunities and avoid disasters, thereby reducing business surprises. When sales are made on the basis of whether a person can fog a mirror, it’s time to take a look at what is driving your sales market and make adjustments.

Often it is assumed that the data needed to anticipate downturns just doesn’t exist in the business world. In reality, there are many ways to review data and make decisions before disaster strikes. Just because everyone else is doing business in a particular way doesn’t mean it is the right way. During the mortgage debacle we all acted like Congress…only looking at the results of the near term and disregarding the consequences of the future.

One might suggest that there is no way of anticipating events, so what’s the use of trying? As a sales professional, it is your job to know.  Your clients depend on you. Your referrals depend on your knowing. There are always warnings and you are responsible to recognize them and keep your clients’ best interest in the forefront.

Many ideas sound great. It goes against common sense, but what the heck, why not try it. The potential to make A LOT of money is there! So what if the risk seems a bit high. Common sense never grows old. Never rush into an idea; give it time to percolate before a final decision is made. Common sense will win out.

Business blind spots can have devastating consequences.  “Business surprises, the unexpected events that rule the business world every day, should not be surprises” writes Kenneth McGee, author of “Heads Up:  How to Anticipate Business Surprises and Seize Opportunities First”.  As sales professionals—the CEO’s of our businesses, consider the “blind spots” that are needed to keep looking back, and around corners, so that you don’t get struck or run into something that could devastate your businesses.

Don’t try going it alone.  Our culture has raised us to be “self made men and women”.  To be independent and self-sufficient makes it easy to reject offers of help and advice.  By isolating yourself, you undercut your team for success.

By being oblivious about your financial situation you endanger your business and family.  When things go well and you’re making a lot of money, cash outflows are ignored till you have a bad month or quarter.  The mantra that is heard across the country is “Expense Management”.  Fat is being cut to the bone as industries have learned to do without—something that they should have done when times were good.

Hindsight is 20/20…but we need more.  20/20 vision is normal vision.  Hindsight is the perception of the significance and nature of events after they have occurred. Hindsight is the process of deriving meaning from what was seen or experienced.  In a way, it’s an examination of what lessons should have been learned in the past.  By tracking your business experience through business planning and keeping notes, it allows you to look back at previous lessons.  Avoiding mistakes made in the past, and learning from them, allows a “hind sight”, that can be reexamined periodically, avoiding previous misjudgments and taking sharper aim on the target or goals that you want to hit. 

Myopic vision or near sightedness is the most dangerous condition for a business. Only seeing what is in your immediate vision makes a precarious business practice.  The housing crisis that began in 2007 was preceded by a long period when it appeared that housing prices would rise forever.  Caught up in the bubble, many individuals and families bought homes far beyond their means, tempted by low interest rates, and interest only plans.  Banks and other lenders rushed in to meet the demand, without regard to the big picture.  Everybody tried to cash in on the apparent “good times” without considering what would happen in the future.  When the inevitable bursting of the bubble occurred, the ripple effects included a worldwide credit crunch, resulting in many once stable businesses being unable to obtain credit to maintain operations or expand capacity.  Short sighted and over extended, business came to a screeching halt. Materialism, greed and a disregard for common sense has forced the economy to its knees.

In all businesses, it is necessary to be alert and have a clear vision of what you want to accomplish. All businesses run in cycles. Over and over again. Be aware of the blind spots in your business.  Watch the cycles in your business. Measure and evaluate your leads, pipeline of suspects, prospects and clients. Keep expenses low.  Learn to do without.   Be alert of market trends, read everything you can, get a coach, join a mastermind group—all of these ideas can limit the number of possible disasters in your business.  Forewarned is forearmed.

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