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Written by HSDent
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HS Dent - 07 Dec 2010 05:40 AM PST - Five weeks. It only took five weeks for the amnesia in Washington, DC to come raging back. Americans of all stripes told their congressmen to be more fiscally responsible. Republicans only wanted benefits if they could be paid for, and Democrats only wanted a tax increase on those making more than $250k. So what have we ended up with? A proposal that goes one better! Not only do we get unemployment benefit extensions that are NOT paid for, but also no tax increase for anyone. The one-upmanship comes in the form of a cut in Social Security taxes on employees of 2% of payroll for the next year at the cost of a smooth $120 billion. I’m not sure where this negotiation happened (in a bar, maybe? after many, many drinks), but I do not understand exactly what was negotiated. In negotiation, there are compromises to arrive at a solution that is workable for all. This particular deal is not a compromise. It is a complete travesty in terms of fiscal responsibility. The total cost over two years is expected to be $450 billion in added debt! What Congressman ran on the platform of adding 1/2 trillion to our debt in the next 24 months, on top of the expected $1.2 trillion per year that we will run in deficits at the current pace? Just a few short weeks after the election, we are not just back to where we were, we are further behind. Call your Congressman, tell them what you think. |
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Written by HS Dent
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By Rodney Johnson - 2010-12-03 - Ben Bernanke must be feeling a lot like Peter Pan. Apparently, his efforts to restart our moribund economy are being hampered by the investing public’s lack of faith in his ability to steer the markets. Specifically, Bernanke and company put billions of newly created dollars to work last week and we simply didn’t care enough to buy treasuries along side the Fed; instead, we sold them, pushing yields higher and valuations lower. This shows the irrationality of investors, at least it does in the eyes of those critiquing such things. The WSJ ran an article today entitled “Criticism Hinders Fed’s Plan,” which attempts to lay the blame for the Fed’s ineffectiveness at the feet of anybody else. |
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Written by Harry Dent
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HS Dent - Dec 3, 2010 - In brief: What a difference a month makes! The tone of the markets and the economy shifted substantially in October. Third-quarter GDP came in at 2.0%, slightly higher for the first time since late 2009. August and September retail sales came in stronger than expected, as did the October employment report. Most importantly, the Fed announced an aggressive quantitative easing (QE) policy for injecting $600 billion plus reinvesting maturing bond holdings, resulting in as much as $900 billion purchases of Treasury bonds into mid-2011. The markets clearly shifted from what looked like a strong corrective bounce to a more bullish rally that has already reached highs in excess of the April highs in all of the major markets. Now the pattern is much more likely to be a five-wave c-wave that would include a fourth wave downward just ahead. This wave is likely to be followed by a final fifth wave that could peak as early as late December, but is more likely to peak later—as late as between March and August 2011, at 1,280 to as high as 1,440 on the S&P 500 and 12,000 to 13,200 on the Dow. Such a pattern would complete a B-wave or bear market rally top that began in early March 2009. |
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Written by Harry Dent
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Harry S. Dent - Posted: 22 Nov 2010 11:01 AM PST - Ben Bernanke must be feeling a lot like Peter Pan. Apparently, his efforts to restart our moribund economy are being hampered by the investing public’s lack of faith in his ability to steer the markets. Specifically, Bernanke and company put billions of newly created dollars to work last week and we simply didn’t care enough to buy treasuries along side the Fed; instead, we sold them, pushing yields higher and valuations lower. This shows the irrationality of investors, at least it does in the eyes of those critiquing such things. The WSJ ran an article today entitled “Criticism Hinders Fed’s Plan,” which attempts to lay the blame for the Fed’s ineffectiveness at the feet of anybody else. |
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Written by HS Dent
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HS Dent - 16 Nov 2010 07:21 AM PST - Are we seeing the first signs? The Fed gave us the “number” a couple of weeks ago, just after the election. $600 billion seemed not to hot, not too cold. But the papers and airwaves are filled with discontent over the policy in general, to the point where Fed Governors Yellen and Dudley held seperate interviews to specifically claim that the Fed measures are NOT meant to devalue the dollar. Now, stop your laughing. Or crying. Or whatever your response was to the bald-faced lies. It doesn’t really matter what the jaw-boning of the Fed Governors is, the impact of printing trillions of new dollars is to devalue those in circulation. The real question is, has this policy created the impact the Fed wanted, and will it have an impact going forward? |
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