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Economic Commentaries
The American Economy…Getting Stronger!
TeaLeaf by Jeff Thredgold - 2011-02-03 - Good news!  The U.S. economy is now showing more signs of self-sustaining growth.  Such growth is opposed to the somewhat artificial growth during late 2009 and in early 2010 tied in part to massive government stimulus.

The American economy (GDP) grew at a 3.2% real (after inflation) annual rate during 2010’s final quarter, the best performance since January-March 2010.  GDP, or gross domestic product, is the most all-inclusive measure of goods produced and services provided on U.S. soil.  While the growth pace was slightly less than the 3.5% consensus view of forecasting economists, the 3.2% growth pace came up short for the right reason.

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Homeownership Makes $ense

Howard Voyles - HousngMatrix.com - Bring on the buyers! At last, the housing market is beginning to make sense again. The ownership line is finally crossing over the rental line on the great Homeownership graph.

It is now more expensive to rent than to buy a home in 72% of major metropolitan areas across the US, according to the Trulia Rent vs. Buy Index released in January.

This is due to rising demand for rentals and falling home prices combined with low interest rates.

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Housing's Adverse Feedback Loop

BANKS/LENDERS
Much of the concern about another housing dip centers on the banks. A sharp house-price decline could lead to more foreclosures, hammering profits and reducing lending, such as it is. Here is a look at just a few factors that contribute to housings Adverse Feedback Loop.

Economist Michelle Meyer identifies an “adverse feedback loop” where:

Lower Home Prices => Tighter Bank Credit => Fewer Jobs => Prolonged Housing Recession
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Where Are Home Prices Heading?

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that the number of signed purchase contracts for existing homes rose. Their index rose 3.5% in November. Even though the index remains 5.0% below its November 2009 The NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index took a steep dive following the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit in April.

Post-Tax Break Bounce Back

This is a sign that housing is regaining its health, even though the index remains 5.0% below its November 2009 measurement. This indicates that home sales are recovering without direct government stimulus. The NRA describes it as “a gradual recovery into 2011.”

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Jobs

The story is getting old…

…the latest employment report was a downer, especially when compared to the garden variety of data supporting the notion that the U.S. economy is gaining strength.

Stronger U.S. job gains are coming soon!

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