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Economic Commentaries
Jeff Thredgold: Not Your Parent's Federal Reserve

Not Your Parent's Federal Reserve - Jeff Thredgold / Tea Leaf

Whether one likes it or not this Federal Reserve, under the direction of Chairman Ben Bernanke, has not exactly been shy in turning traditional Fed actions on their collective head.  Another major development occurred on January 25.
 
The Federal Reserve—now in its 99th year of existence as this nation’s central bank—has traditionally tried to keep financial market players and investors in the dark as to future policy moves.  As a result, major financial institutions for years employed highly compensated “Fed watchers” to decipher every word…every nuance…of Fed statements to gain an advantage regarding the Fed’s next monetary policy moves…

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Howard Voyles: More Predictions for 2012 Housing Market

More Predictions for 2012 Housing Market - Howard Voyles / HousingMatrix.com

David Goldberg, UBS’s home-builder analyst just released their predictions for the 2012 housing industry. Mr. Goldberg says housing will have a modest recovery this year. He told the WSJ “I’m more bullish today than I have been in the last five years.”

Here are USB’s predictions:

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Weekly Economic & Housing Update - Impact of Quantitative Easing & Inflation on Housing

Impact of Quantitative Easing & Inflation on Housing  - Weekly Economic & Housing Update - HousingMatrix.com

Join the conversation with economist Rodney Johnson, president of HS Dent and host Howard Voyles, CEO of HousingMatrix.com. Understand the Forces Shaping the Economy & the Housing Market – Make Informed Decisions. The most informative 20 minutes you will spend this week. Click here to listen

 
Jeff Thredgold: "The Danger Zone"

"The Danger Zone" - Jeff Thredgold / Tea Leaf

The world’s economy is “deeply into the danger zone” because of risks from the eurozone, the International Monetary Fund has stated. The IMF predicts the global economy will grow by 3.25% (after inflation) in 2012, down from an earlier forecast of 4.0%. Global output is forecast to expand 3.9% in 2013, down from a previous forecast of 4.5%.

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Howard Voyles: Forecasts & Predictins For Housing In 2012

FORECASTS & PREDICTIONS FOR HOUSING IN 2012 - Howard Voyles / HousingMatrix.com

David Liniger, Chairman and Co-Founder of RE/MAX released his Top 10 Real Estate Predictions for 2012:

  • Continued low interest rates;
  • Increasing numbers of home sales;
  • Increasing numbers of home sales;
  • Rising inventories, mostly due to increased foreclosures;
  • Distressed properties will make up about half of all sales;
  • An improved Short Sales process to help avoid foreclosure;
  • Homeownership rates continue to fall;
  • Foreign and domestic investors will buy 25% of homes;
  • Increasing reliance on real estate agents;
  • Increased use of Mobile & Social technologies.

MORE HOUSING FORECASTS:

Merrill Lynch – “It is too early to get bullish”.

Industry consultant John Burns - New Home Sales will increase from about 300k in 2011 to near 359k IN 2012 and Housing Starts from 600k in 2011 to near 717k (including multifamily).

Reuters – Lennar says high rents helped home order increase 20%.

Toll Brothers - Chief Executive Officer Douglas Yearley Jr. expects to sell about 2,600 homes. He said the company could deliver as many as 3,200 houses, up from the 2,611 sold in fiscal 2011.

Other - Builders have reduced their New Home inventory to 6 months and this will boost New Housing Starts.

 
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